11 years of auction data analysed to surface what drives cardamom prices, when to sell, when to plant, and what to watch next.
Price History & Cycles
Yearly Average Price
Small cardamom (Alleppey Green) — Kerala auctions
ATH: --ATL: --
Market Regimes
Monthly Seasonality — When to Sell Your Harvest
Which months get the best prices?
Based on 11 years of auction data (2015-2026). Each month's price is compared to the yearly average (100 = average).
The Cardamom Paradox
Prices are highest during harvest season (Aug-Sep, Dec-Jan), not during the lean months. This is unusual and happens because:
Festival demand — Diwali (Oct-Nov) and Christmas/New Year drive peak buying
Export orders bunch before year-end as international buyers stock up
Fresh crop premium — buyers pay more for just-harvested cardamom (Aug-Sep)
Mar-May slump — storage stocks are sufficient, no festivals, demand is quiet
Key Price Drivers
Planting Cycle — Best & Worst Years
Cost Floor vs Market Price
Estimated production cost/kg rising with labour inflation
--x cost
Best Years to Plant
Worst Years to Plant
Farmer Questions
VERIFIED MODEL
Model Performance
Historical accuracy tracking for the Alleppey Green Small Cardamom price prediction model (v2.4).
88%
+2.4%
Directional Accuracy
Percentage of predictions that correctly forecast the price movement direction (up/down).
9.2%
↓-0.5%
MAPE (Mean Abs. % Error)
Average percentage difference between predicted and actual prices. Lower is better.
High
Confidence Score
Data Completeness
99.8%
Model Drift
Low
Predicted vs Actual Price
Model accuracy visualization over time
Forecast Ledger
Validated predictions & upcoming forecasts
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Date
Predicted Price
Actual Price
Delta (Abs)
Precision
Status
The data pipeline runs daily, fetching auction results and generating new forecasts automatically. Validated predictions appear here once actual prices are confirmed. The model was deployed in late February 2026 — prediction history will grow over time.
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